Preakness Betting - Will I Have Another

Bodemeister posted the 5th fastest 1st quarter and half mile times in Derby history. Normally, a horse setting this kind of early pace is nowhere to be found at the wire, but Bodemeister lost the Derby by just 1½ lengths. This colt has been a physical freak throughout his short racing career, bouncing back following all out efforts.

There are plenty of good reasons that support Bodemeister as the favorite in this race. The most pervasive idea, relied upon by those picking him, is that he is a speed horse that won’t slow down at this distance. Interestingly though, in the Preakness, horses that lead at the 1st quarter have accounted for only 1 win in the last 25 years, while horses that were in 2nd, 3rd, or 4th at the first quarter won in 12 times during that same time period.

What about I’ll Have Another? The fact that there have been 12 different winners in the last 12 Triple Crown races doesn’t bode well for this colt. This ultra-competitiveness in today’s thoroughbred racing maybe a reason for the common perception that it is now close to impossible to have a Triple Crown winner. What might be being overlooked however, is that in the last 33 years, 14, or 42% of the time, a horse has won 2 of the 3 triple crown legs. 11 of those horses won the 1st 2 legs. So, 33% of the time, an average of once every 3 years, the horse that won the Derby went on to win the Preakness. The last colt to accomplish that feat was Big Brown in ’08. So, in the 4th year since that happened, is I’ll Have Another Due?

The head bookmaker from BetOnline.com had this to say about I’ll Have Another:

“Another accomplishment by I’ll Have Another that shouldn’t be overlooked when handicapping the Preakness, is that this was the first Colt EVER to win from the 19th post position.”

Will his task be easier for him in an 11 horse race out of the 9th position? Most Derby winners are favorites in the Preakness. Unless there is a lot of late money on this colt, the perception is that his rival is the better horse, and I’ll Have Another’s task not so easy.

Every year the Derby winner is tied to a prop. Can he win the triple crown? As mentioned the perception in horse racing is that it is a near impossible feat these days. Also mentioned is a reality which contradicts that perception: there have been a lot of near misses over the last 30 years. Even more telling of how close we have come to having a Triple Crown winner, is the fact that of the 11 horses that won the Derby and the Preakness, 8 of those horses finished 2nd or 3rd in the Belmont Stakes. That’s close Betonline.com says “it’s not so close”. They are showing: -1685 no +1100 yes whether I’ll Have Another can make history.

Another trend to be aware of is that only 3 of the last 28 Preaknesses have been won by a “new horse”, a horse that didn’t race in the Derby. In this race, six horses from the Derby will be running, including 4 of the 5 top finishers. There is some sharp money coming in on Went The Day Well, probably because of his strong finish, but this colt looks like he is being over-bet.

Two long shots that we are looking at are Tiger Walk at 33-1, winning twice at Pimlico, and Zetterholm at 22-1. Although these are new horses, both have strong records and are well rested.

One thing is for sure today, it is not going to rain. It’s a competitive field, and we could have the makings of a classic rivalry in our midst between Bodemeister and I’ll Have Another. Horse racing as a sport will for sure be in the spotlight if there is a Triple Crown bid this year.

Mark Barron gives Tampa Bay an upgrade in the secondary

Carolina Panthers – Well, Carolina had a great draft last year! 2011’s number one overall draft pick, Cam Newton won Offensive Rookie Of The Year and just about every overall Rookie Of The Year award given. It’s hard to believe that he actually wasn’t the favorite at +600. Somehow the lines makers had Julio Jones at +500, which left us scratching our heads, since Jones was competing for targets with elite veteran receiver, Roddy White. Anyway, not a bad year for Newton, he only set the rookie record for passing yards in a season and total TD’s in a season. Now that’s a draft!

With a franchise QB in place, Carolina needed to improve their defense. With an aging Steve Smith Newton needed some fresh weapons as well. With the 9th overall pick the Panthers went defense and selected our favorite choice to garner the 2012 Defensive Rookie Of The Year award, Luke Kuechly. Remember, the voters love linebackers and this guy is a tackling machine, ready to play. Before the lines came out, we had him as the favorite. So far, the sportsbooks have the field as the favorite in this category at +500, but for named players, Kuechly is tied with two others with the lowest odds, +800. In the Panther’s 4-3 defense, we’d like to see him playing in middle linebacker, where he’d rack up tackles, but, right now on the depth chart he’s penciled in to start at weak side linebacker, which makes us a little less sure about his chances. Let’s see what develops during training camp.
Unfortunately, Carolina waited until the 4th round to try and find a new toy for Newton. Joe Adams out of Arkansas may start someday, but there won’t be too much opportunity early on. The Panthers hope Steve Smith can keep father time at bay for another season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Undisciplined, that’s how to describe the Bucs 2011 let down, after a promising 2010. In the 2012 draft Tampa Bay really needed an upgrade in the secondary, and they did so by selecting Alabama safety Mark Barron 7 overall. Barron should start right away, and have all the opportunity he needs to earn the award. The trends, however, indicate it doesn’t look good for Barron, since a safety hasn’t won Defensive Rookie Of The Year since Mark Carrier won it 22 years ago. We like Barron’s opportunity and talent, but +1200 doesn’t seem like great value based upon the aforementioned trend. Maybe it’s something about today’s NFL and a rookie safety’s learning curve, leading to some bad plays. Alone on an island, a Safety’s mistake, can be glaringly obvious. Perhaps it’s this high visibility that underscores the voters reluctance to nominate a safety over the years. For example, how did Troy Polamalu or Bob Sanders not win this award as rookies?
The Bucs will have a strong candidate for Offensive Rookie Of The Year too. With the second to last pick in the 1st round, Tampa Bay probably dashed the hopes of the NY Giants and their fans by selecting RB Doug Martin. Martin comes to Tampa Bay after finishing a marvelous four year career with Boise St. He is an every down back, can run it, catch it, and most importantly: pass protect. LeGarrette Blount had a chance to lock down the Buc’s running back job for the future, but he was just not interested in improving his pass blocking. Enter Doug Martin, and Blount’s days with the Tampa are numbered. Many compare Martin to Baltimore’s Ray Rice, and that comparison is not unreasonable. We think Doug Martin is a lot like former winner of the award, Curtis Martin. Martin has mounds of talent, and his all around ability should keep him on the field. +1500 is underdog value for a player that should be a second tier favorite. Buy it!

Atlanta Falcons – Atlanta gave up a lot in this years’ draft to get Julio Jones last year. Atlanta really needed to find some pass protection from Matt Ryan but their first pick was 55 overall, with only two picks in the top 150. Going for need, the Falcons went OL, OL, and, in reality, hope one of these guys can contribute this year. As far as award candidates on either side of the ball, there are none.

New Orleans Saints – The Saints gave up this year’s No. 1 to get RB Mark Ingram last year. Their 2nd round pick in 2012 was forfeited as penalty for the “Bounty Scandal”, not very Saintly of them. The Saints’ biggest need was to add some defensive players, especially since some of their starters were likely to be suspended multiple games as a result of their scandalous misdeeds. As a result this was a ho hum draft, with New Orleans selecting the best players available. The only drafted player worth mentioning, in connection with this award, is WR Nick Toon, who they got in the 4th round. Toon is talented and might start for some teams, but he’s entering a crowded situation, and thus would be part of the field with respect to this prop bet. Nick Toon is the son of former Jet star, Al Toon, whose career was tragically cut short because of multiple concussions. Ironically, the pervasive concussion problem, now permeating the NFL, was the reason behind the harsh penalties for the “Bounty Scandal”.

How the Draft Impacts NFL Betting in the AFC West

AFC West
Oakland Raiders – This was the first Raider draft without Al Davis. During Davis’ last years’ Raider fans were very critical of this football icon, justifiably questioning his competence. Although Davis has indeed made some questionable picks during that time, the Raiders have actually done a very good job in the mid and late rounds, having drafted some good contributing players. Ironically, Davis’s successors are maybe less competent from the old boss, as they all but ruined the 2012 draft because of last years’ trade for Carson Palmer. Because of this highly questionable trade, for a QB on a sharp decline, the Raiders did not pick until the 3rd round. The only Raider rookie with the talent to win this award is 6thround pick from Arizona WR Juron Criner. This rookie has very little opportunity, however, as he will be competing with other talented young players ahead of him on the depth chart.

Kansas City Chiefs – Last year injuries really hurt the Chiefs. A disappointing 2011 left them with a fairly high draft pick as consolation. The Chiefs needed help on the interior offensive line, and a nose tackle to plug up their 3-4 defense. With the 11th pick they chose arguably the drafts biggest physical freak. Dontari Poe is a 350 lb bowling ball who can bench press 225 lbs 44 times. He just so happened to run a sub 5 second 40 yard dash at the combine, numbers unheard of from a man his size. Unfortunately, his college production at Memphis, against so-so competition, did not mirror his physical gifts. Sportsbook.com posts him as +1500 to win Defensive Rookie Of The Year. This is not enough for a player with a questionable motor at this position.

Kansas City did address their offensive line in their next few picks, but these players at this position have no chance to cash a ticket on these particular prop bets.

San Diego Chargers – Chargers needed to find some pass protection for Phillip Rivers, who had a down year running from constant pressure. They also needed to help their pass rush. So, in the first round of the draft, San Diego may have gotten a steal in Melvin Ingram. Ingram was the best defensive player on the NCAA’s best defensive team last year. He played all over the Alabama defense in 2011. He was their leader. On the Chargers he can be the same disruptive force. The voters for this award love this type of player, and he comes in at a juicy +1800. He’ll have to earn a starting job out of the gate, but on first news that he does, he’s worth a play.

Chargers did not draft anyone worthy of consideration that will have an opportunity offensively.

Denver Broncos – The Broncos biggest offseason splash was signing Payton Manning. Whether he bounces back from a career threatening injury or not remains to be seen but it seemed critical that the Broncos get him some weapons in the draft. Unfortunately, the Broncos did not have a first round pick in the 2012 NFL draft, and chose to address the defensive side of the ball in the second round, drafting DT Derek Wolfe. He will have no chance to win the award and it’s no coincidence he’s not listed as a prop.

Broncos did not draft any notable offensive weapons for Payton.

Michael Brockers Defensive Rookie of the Year Potential

Until head injury protection rules alter the NFL to the point that it is unwatchable, this game will remain at its pinnacle of popularity. Whether you are a fan, a fantasy football player, handicapper, or bettor, February thru August are the down months. Just before the NFL draft however, things start to pick up. Now that the draft is over, and most of the veteran free agents have been signed, it’s time to take a look at what can be expected for the 2012 season. Many football betting sites have come out with early week 1 lines.

Most have put out props and futures on the season totals, division winners, Conference Championships, and the Super Bowl winner. Recently, TheGreek.com has come out with props on offensive and defensive Rookie Of The Year. In a series of articles, Sportsbook.org will examine each team’s draft by division, with a view toward what draft picks have a chance to win these awards. A rookie’s chances to win these awards depend on 2 factors: talent and opportunity. It is interesting to note that, in a typical year, there will only be about 21 rookies starting on opening day throughout the league.

In the first article in this series we will take a look at the respective drafts of the teams in the NFC West division to uncover some good candidates potential winners of this prop.

NFC West Betting

St. Louis Rams – The Rams had holes everywhere, but their biggest priority was protecting and finding weapons for Sam Bradford. Trading down from their number overall pick, the Rams gave themselves a few more choices. They surprised everyone though, by drafting defensive tackle Michael Brockers with their first pick. Brockers has plenty of potential and should anchor the line for years to come, but, as a tackle in a 4 man front, he will probably be part of a rotation. A defensive tackle has won Defensive Rookie of the year (Ndamukong Sug) once in the last 18 years. Not surprisingly, despite his high draft slot, several online sportsbooks list him at +1800 to win the award, with only 3 other rookies fighting longer odds.

Sticking on the defensive side of the ball, the Rams 2nd round pick, Janoris Jenkins, has just as much talent at the cornerback position, with a better opportunity to play . As long as Jenkins can stay away from the bong hits, he should start for a terrible Rams secondary. Jenkins is less of a long shot than Brockers at +1500. He’s arguably as talented as any rookie corner , including Morris Claiborne, who is a 2nd tier favorite at +800.

As they should have, the Rams did draft some potential weapons for Bradford: Brian Quick (also round 2) and Chris Givens (4th round). After mini-camp the coaching staff was raving about both players. Some outside the organization are high on Quick, while others see him as a reach because of his small school background. (Appalachian St.) He’s a long shot with the Greek at +2200. We think his draft mate, Givens, who’s more polished coming out of Wake Forest, could make more of his opportunity. He’d be part of the field at +800. Just for the record though, the last time a winner of Offensive Rookie Of The Year was higher than a 2nd round pick, it was Mike Anderson in 2000. Who?

Arizona Cardinals – What Arizona really needed in the draft was a QB, but after giving up so much in terms of personnel and money for Kevin Kolb, blindly I might add, they could not admit failure so soon.

Their next need was on the offensive line, followed by pass rush help. Although the Cardinals may have gotten a steal in the 4th round, when massive tackle Bobby Massie fell to them, a rookie tackle is not winning this award. In the first round the Cardinals chose the best player available in stud receiver out of Notre Dame, Michael Floyd. He should start and we like him. At +1000 however it’s low value for a rookie receiver, with a bad QB, who has to compete with Larry Fitzgerald for targets. Fade it!

Cardinals got nothing on the defensive side of the ball worth mentioning.

Seattle Seahawks – Seattle took care of their need at QB with the acquisition of free agent Matt Flynn, then, during the draft, they shocked most draftnicks by taking DE/OLD Bruce Irvin out of West Virginia. Irvin is an great athlete, who’s size is probably best suited for OLB in a 3-4 defensive scheme. The Seahawks play a 4-3. He has tremendous pass rushing skill, mostly because of blazing speed, but most experts consider him one dimensional. Concern for his lack of all around ability, and off the field issues (once arrested for robbery), seemed to suggest he wasn’t worth a mid first round pick. In the 2nd round Seattle took a true 4-3 outside line backer in Bobby Wagner. Right now, both of these guys aren’t even starting, according to the Seahawks depth chart. We think Irvin will most certainly play on passing downs though. The Defensive Rookie Of The Year award has been dominated by linebackers and defensive ends. The voters love sack artists, so Irvin has a chance. He’s on the list at +2000. It’s too early to take him now, but Irvin would be worth a shot if there is some positive news out of training camp.

Seattle signed free agent QB Matt Flynn. He’s expected to win the starting job. They also have last year’s starter Travaris Jackson back. The Seahawks must not be too happy with either candidate though, because they selected Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson with their 3rd round pick. After rookie mini-camp, coach Pete Carroll announced that Wilson would compete with Flynn and Jackson for the starting job. At 5 11, 203, we give Wilson very little chance of even taking a snap. He’s a poor member of the +800 field.

Sorry Seahawk fans but overall we are scratching our heads at this year’s draft.

San Francisco 49ers – The 9ers didn’t seem to have any pressing needs after almost reaching the Superbowl last year. The ‘best player available strategy’ seemed like the route they’d take. They did surprise however, in their selection of WR AJ Jenkins with the second to last pick in the 1 st round. Stephen Hill and Reuben Randle were better prospects and available. As far as opportunity goes, Jenkins enters a crowded receiving corps. In addition, whatever the49er scouts saw in him wasn’t evident in rookie mini-camp. Reports out of camp are those of a bloated, overweight player, doubled over and vomiting after drills; and a furious coach. At +2000 we’ll take a pass, unless there are some drastic changes.

Nothing else worth mentioning from San Francisco, they didn’t need much rookie help anyway.

BetOnline NBA Betting - Conference Final Odds

Indiana Pacers 4 – 1: +9500
Indiana Pacers 4 – 2: +5000
Indiana Pacers 4 – 3: +2200
Miami Heat 4 – 0: +280
Miami Heat 4 – 1: +205
Miami Heat 4 – 2: +255
Miami Heat 4 – 3: +305

In the Clippers vs. Spurs series the BetOnline NBA odds favor the Spurs with the series odds listed at: Clippers: +1300; Spurs: -2200

The full series odds are:

Los Angeles Clippers 4 – 0: +10000
Los Angeles Clippers 4 – 1: +6000
Los Angeles Clippers 4 – 2: +2500
Los Angeles Clippers 4 – 3: +4500
San Antonio Spurs 4 – 0: +235
San Antonio Spurs 4 – 1: +115
San Antonio Spurs 4 – 2: +400
San Antonio Spurs 4 – 3: +600

With revenge are their minds the young Thunder are big favorites to win the series. As of this post BookMaker.com has them as -460/+380 favorites to advance to the Western Conference Semifinals.

For this series, the Lakers will likely sick Artest on NBA’s leading scorer Kevin Durant, while the Thunder will counter early by instructing Thabo Sefalosha to harass Kobe Bryant. The problem for the Lakers though, is that they have no answer at point guard. There’s no point guard on the Lakers that can keep pace with Russell Westbrook, although in the last meeting they limited Westbrook to poor shooting and turnovers after asking Kobe to man him up. Whether the Lakers employ that strategy this series remains to be seen.

Although there was a question of whether Thunder space eater and defensive enforcer, Kendrick Perkins, would be able to play tonight, due to a hip injury suffered in game 4 of the Thunder’s’ sweep of NBA defending Champs the Dallas Mavericks, he has stated earlier today that he feels fine. That means Laker center, Andrew Bynum, will really need to remain focused and assert himself. His scoring and rebounding will be a key for the Lakers. Bynum will also need help from front line mate Paul Gasol, who has been a shell of himself this season. If the Lakers are to upset the Thunder these two guys, down low, will be needed to take the heat of Kobe Bryant.

Finally, and to make matters worse for the Lakers, they can’t compete with the Thunders depth. This Thunder advantage begins with, arguably the leagues best 6th man, James Harden. He will be personally motivated to send thug Ron Artest home early.

As for Game 1, Sportsbook.com along with most other books have moved the Thunder up to an 8 point favorite, and there seems to be two way action with betters taking either side. Although it is the playoffs, both these team are not known for their consistent defensive intensity. As a result, most of the betting is on the over which is at 192 or 192 1/2 depending where you go.

In the series the Thunder are justifiably a convincing favorite, but the are a young team playing against a team that has won it all. To say the Lakers have nothing left in the tank may be a stretch. How can one pass up on Kobe and the Lakers in the clutch? Hard to do, but, unfortunately, most of the betting public feels the same way with just about 70% tickets on the underdog.

Maybe it’s best to go game by game on this one. So for tonight look for the Thunder, with Perkins healthy, take it to Ron Artest and win one for Harden.

Betting on NHL Eastern Conference

Devils Rangers Stats – NHL Matchup Preview
This NHL matchup, known as “The Battle For The Hudson”, the Devils are scoring nearly a goal a game more than the Rangers during the playoffs, and they are fresh, having not played since Tuesday. The Rangers on the other hand have to be gassed. They are coming off one day of rest after two back to back 7 game series. The Devils power play has been better too, cashing in on nearly 21% of their chances to a mere 15.8% success rate for the Rangers. The Devils advantage in goals per game maybe a little skewed, however. They are only averaging 2.4 more shots a game than the Rangers. Although, the Devil’s have the edge on offense, it should be the respective defenses that decides the series.

Goalies are key to Betting Success
The key to the Ranger’s success has been their goalie, Henrik Lundqvist. Both a Vezina Trophy finalist and a Hart Trophy finalist, he’s only let in 1.68 goals a game, with a .937 save avg. He is opposed by the 4 time Vezina Trophy holder Martin Brodeur who, at 40, has seemed to have found a bit of his youth, allowing just 2.05 goals a game with a .920 save rate. Brodeur must continue this solid play if the Devils are to stay in this series. What may be the overlooked edge, is that the Rangers defensemen as well as their forwards have been helping their goalie out with courageous shot blocking throughout the playoffs. The unique key for the Rangers defense will be holding down Devil’s star Ilya Kovalchuck like they did Alex Ovechkin in the Washington series. Success against the freight train Ovechkin may not be an indicator of success against the speedy and agile Kovalchuck though.

Betting Lines on the Series
Although the Battle Of The Hudson may not be of great interest to Canadian bettors the offshore sportsbooks have the Rangers as the favorite. Pinnacle has the Rangers in the series -140/+127. Betonline currently makes the series at -140/+120, and Bookmaker.com is showing -135/+115.

For game one both Sortsbook.com and Bookmaker have the Rangers at -135/+115. All the sportsbooks have a very low total at 41/2, and though they are not coming off the 41/2 total, the price has moved to as much as -135 in some places. An interesting note on the 4 1/2 total: since 2005, 68% of NHL playoff games have gone over this number.

Although the Devils are 5-1 in their last six games as an underdog, they don’t like Mondays where they are 0 for their last 4. The Rangers do like Mondays lately. They are 7-1 in their last 8. More telling however is that the Rangers are 41-20 in their last 61 games as a favorite.

The Rangers should ride their hot goalie to advance in 7 games. As for tonight, Rangers and the over appears to be the play.

The question is will anyone make a line on if there will be a fight in the first 8 minutes of the game?

Golf Betting at the Players Championship TPC Sawgrass

600 Fed Ex Cup points
80 points toward the official World Golf Rankings
A five year exemption on the PGA tour
A 3 year invitation to The Masters, US Open, and British Open and an invite for the PGA Championship for that year

Betting on the TPC can be as hazardous as navigating Sawgrass’ two finishing holes. Handicappers will tell you, like Augusta, this tournament favors the experienced veteran. Even playing there multiple times, however, is not enough, as evidenced by Angel Cabrera’s 9 on the 17th hole. Players who bet on Cabrera ripped up their tickets after he withdraw from the tournament following his Tin Cup battle with the Island Green. At the time of this article Martin Laird holds a 1 stroke lead, but the pressure will build over the weekend. An example of the pressures golfers will face over the weekend are evidenced by the greens, which appear brown, because they are cut so low very little leaf blade is showing.

Besides the current leader other players to keep an eye on are Zack Johnson (trailing by one), former winner Adam Scott, a ‘due’ Luke Donald, and Mr. Consistent, Matt Kuchar.

Top 10 Bets at Sportsbook.com

1. MLB: Cincinnati Reds – 140
At -140, the favored Reds should be able to delivery a victory against the mediocre Arizona Cardinals.

2. MLB: LA Dodgers -140
The iconic Dodgers are favorites going into this matchup. The Dodgers have played well and should take down the Rockies.

3. MLB: Athletics -136
Staying in baseball, the Athletics host Tampa Bay. Playing at home and getting good help from their bats lately the Athletics are favorites.

4. MLB: Rays +126
At +126 the Rays are getting plenty of attention from US bettors at Sportsbook.com. Look for this line to move close to the start of the game.

5. NFL: Dolphins -3.0/-125
Miami goes into this game a 3 point favorite. Bettors at Sportsbook.com are loading up on the Dolphins.

6. NFL: Packers -1.0/-110
Greenbay has a slide advantage at this one and listed as a 1 point favoriate at the big US book maker.

7. MMA: Randy Couture -550
Rand Courture is a huge favoriate to win his next MMA match. At -550 there is still value here as all signs point to this bet paying out winners to those who back Courture.

8. NCAA Football Lines: USC -21.0/-110
Bettors at Sportsbook.com like USC this weekend. The 21 point favorites are getting lots of betting action.

9. MMA: Kenny Florian -155
The line continues to move on Florian. Sitting at -155 it will continue to get more expensive to bet on this explosive fighter. Most of this action is coming from US bettors in Las Vegas, California and New York.

10. MLB: Diamondbacks +130
Rounding out the top 10 Sportsbook.com bets are the d-backs. The dogs are at +130 but should be a safe bet.

Are the Bears a good bet to win the NFC Championship

Urlacher is back in form and leading the d-line. He likes the offense lead by Jay Cutler. “With him (Cutler) at quarterback I think they’re (offensive line) going to be really good.”

BetUS has the Bears at +1600 to prevail as the NFC Champions this year. From our sources this looks like good value. Many major publications are bullish on the Bears chances this year. Read more.